1621 Dayton St · Ellsworth, IA 50075

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1900 10,454 sqft lot Est $159k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 1½-story home offers three bedrooms and one full bath with a classic footprint dating back to 1900. The property has received steady, responsible care over the years and presents as a solid, livable home with plenty of opportunity for a new owner to make it their own. While the home itself is modest, it’s located in a truly great town—known for its strong sense of community, attractive school district, convenient amenities, and small-town appeal. Whether you’re looking for an affordable place to settle in a desirable area or a property with potential for updates over time, this home offers a practical entry point into a location that’s hard to beat. Sched

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 45 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($396/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#325 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• South Hamilton Community School District (rural): math 77% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #30 of 289 in IA (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,531 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,302
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1621 Dayton St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,114 (0%)	3mo	$125,000	$112	97
1723 Dayton Street St	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-1%)	20mo	$162,000	$147	68
1722 Delphi St	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,134 (+2%)	23mo	$181,000	$160	66
1425 Delphi St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,006 (-10%)	21mo	$144,000	$143	53
125 Hwy. 175	0.41mi	3/1.0	988 (-11%)	13mo	$119,447	$121	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $36,818
• Equity at exit: $77,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $107,012
• Equity at exit: $138,634

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50075

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,402/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $68	+0% $33	+5% $-2	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-10	+0% $33	+5% $76	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $65	base $33	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-17
   soldstatus $125,000
2. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-17
   listed $125,000 Active
4. 2025-11-21
   price $125,000
5. 2024-07-01
   soldstatus $104,000
6. 2016-03-26
   listed $72,000
7. 2011-04-25
   soldstatus $55,000
8. 2010-05-21
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$280/yr (+$23/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,402
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Hamilton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926640
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,301
• Composite: 68.02/100
• National rank: #356
• State rank: #30 of 289 in IA

Livability — Ellsworth

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #6574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellsworth, IA
• Population (ZIP): 805

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,602 people
• By 2030: 14,210 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 13,312 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,469 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 11,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 10,806 · -26.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 27% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.3) · D 32.8% · R 66.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: -33.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.3 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.82%
• Current HPI: 183.0258
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-03 Pending — IAR
• 2026-01-17 Listed $125,000 IAR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $125,000 CIBOR
• 2024-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-26 Listed $72,000 CIBOR
• 2011-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,402 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.