222 Timber Pass

Lincoln, AL 35096

$222,224D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,690 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,165
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-355/mo
• Annual: $-4,265/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.85%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $62,223

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $222k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.