222 Timber Pass · Lincoln, AL 35096

$222,224

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 $131/sqft · 9% below area Est $243k · 9% under $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Deer Creek, a new Lennar community in Lincoln, AL! Enjoy modern living with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® features—luxury finishes, stainless appliances, smart-home technology, and energy efficiency throughout. Conveniently located near Lake Logan Martin, Top Trails OHV Park, Talladega Superspeedway, and downtown Lincoln, with easy access to I-20 for commuting to Birmingham or Oxford. Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story “Camden” floor plan, designed with entertaining and everyday living in mind! The main level features a bright, open-concept layout where the spacious living room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen. Enjoy a huge center island, walk-in pantry, and plenty of counter space—perfect for gatherings big or small. Conveniently located near highly-rated schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities. Experience comfort, value, and style in your brand-new home at Deer Creek—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Huge center island
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SMART-HOME TECHNOLOGY
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• HUGE CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,569 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.85%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,142
• List price: $222,224
• Delta: -8.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Timber Pass	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,690 (0%)	3mo	$219,650	$130	98
245 Wood Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,679 (-1%)	14mo	$277,810	$165	85
125 Trophy Loop	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-5%)	3mo	$210,000	$130	83
72 Trophy Loop	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (-5%)	6mo	$232,550	$144	80
135 Wood Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+3%)	16mo	$268,000	$154	80
136 Taylors Farm Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+3%)	2mo	$244,900	$141	70
172 Elm Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-2%)	4mo	$224,900	$135	68
148 Trophy Loop	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+10%)	16mo	$254,370	$137	64
87 Trophy Loop	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-14%)	14mo	$245,160	$170	62
93 Chloe Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+4%)	3mo	$260,000	$147	58
228 Maple Leaf Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+5%)	14mo	$248,000	$140	56
90 Heathers Trl	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+15%)	10mo	$299,000	$154	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,696
• Equity at exit: $99,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $45,560
• Equity at exit: $152,822

Cash invested: $62,223 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,165
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$278 /mo · $3,333/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $170,791

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,556
• Closing costs: $6,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Maple Leaf Dr Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1457	$1,395	$0.96	44d	1	0.34mi
9 Taylor Ct Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,395	$0.94	44d	1	0.55mi
220 Elm Way Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,675	$1.00	44d	1	0.56mi
46 Hawk Ln Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,595	$0.99	24d	1	1.33mi
46 Hawk Ln Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,545	$0.96	21d	1	1.33mi
45 Hawk Ln Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1681	$1,675	$1.00	10d	1	1.36mi
45 Hawk Ln Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1681	$1,675	$1.00	16d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 1001-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

   Welcome to Deer Creek, a new Lennar community in Lincoln, AL! Enjoy modern living with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® features—luxury finishes, stainless appliances, smart-home technology, and energy efficiency throughout. Conveniently located near Lake Logan Martin, Top Trails OHV Park, Talladega Superspeedway, and downtown Lincoln, with easy access to I-20 for commuting to Birmingham or Oxford. Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story “Camden” floor plan, designed with entertaining and everyday living in mind! The main level features a bright, open-concept layout where the spacious living room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen. Enjoy a huge center island, walk-in pantry, and plenty of counter space—perfect for gatherings big or small. Conveniently located near highly-rated schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities. Experience comfort, value, and style in your brand-new home at Deer Creek—schedule your tour today!

2. 2026-04-19
   price $222,224 1001-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

   Welcome to Deer Creek, a new Lennar community in Lincoln, AL! Enjoy modern living with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® features—luxury finishes, stainless appliances, smart-home technology, and energy efficiency throughout. Conveniently located near Lake Logan Martin, Top Trails OHV Park, Talladega Superspeedway, and downtown Lincoln, with easy access to I-20 for commuting to Birmingham or Oxford. Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story “Camden” floor plan, designed with entertaining and everyday living in mind! The main level features a bright, open-concept layout where the spacious living room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen. Enjoy a huge center island, walk-in pantry, and plenty of counter space—perfect for gatherings big or small. Conveniently located near highly-rated schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities. Experience comfort, value, and style in your brand-new home at Deer Creek—schedule your tour today!

3. 2026-04-04
   listed $235,820 Active 1001-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

   Welcome to Deer Creek, a new Lennar community in Lincoln, AL! Enjoy modern living with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® features—luxury finishes, stainless appliances, smart-home technology, and energy efficiency throughout. Conveniently located near Lake Logan Martin, Top Trails OHV Park, Talladega Superspeedway, and downtown Lincoln, with easy access to I-20 for commuting to Birmingham or Oxford. Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story “Camden” floor plan, designed with entertaining and everyday living in mind! The main level features a bright, open-concept layout where the spacious living room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen. Enjoy a huge center island, walk-in pantry, and plenty of counter space—perfect for gatherings big or small. Conveniently located near highly-rated schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities. Experience comfort, value, and style in your brand-new home at Deer Creek—schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,448
• − Property taxes: −$3,333
• − Insurance: −$1,111
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,465
• Taxable loss: −$8,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, AL
• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $222,224 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $235,820 Greater Alabama MLS