2514 Citrus Club Ln #308

Orlando, FL 32839

$113,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$593
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$524
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,196/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $31,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $113k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (12.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $113k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $781 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catalina Elementary (math 35% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 612 students, 82% FRL); Oak Ridge High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,477 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 56% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $113k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?