10404 Carmen Ln

Royal Palm Beach, FL 33411

$519,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,638 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $-714/mo
• Annual: $-8,572/yr
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $145,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $520k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $394k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (38.4% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#135 in FL, #2,039 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Royal Palm Beach Elementary School (math 58% / reading 62%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 662 students, 40% FRL); Crestwood Community Middle (math 49% / reading 52%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 724 students, 50% FRL); Royal Palm Beach High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 2,343 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 583 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $520k implies a 373% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.