10404 Carmen Ln · Royal Palm Beach, FL 33411

$519,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1978 7,500 sqft lot Est $486k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOOD KIT CABINETS W/CUSTOM TILED COUNTERTOPS, NEW CARPET IN BDRMS, TILED FAMILY RM, DIN AREA & KIT, MASTER BTH HAS UPGRADED DOUBLE SINK VANITY, NEW AC CONDENSER, INGROUND POOL W/DIAMOND BRIGHT FINISH & NEW PUMP & FILTER, PRIVATELY FENCED REAR YARD, CIRCULAR DRIVE, EASY TO SHOW

Key facts

• Refreshing pool
• Newer roof
• No hoa fees

Tags

• REFRESHING POOL
• NEWER ROOF
• NO HOA FEES
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $394k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#135 in FL, #2,039 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Royal Palm Beach Elementary School (math 58% / reading 62%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 662 students, 40% FRL); Crestwood Community Middle (math 49% / reading 52%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 724 students, 50% FRL); Royal Palm Beach High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 2,343 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 583 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $520k implies a 373% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,296 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $486,486
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Sandpiper Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,785 (+9%)	7mo	$530,000	$297	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $230,707
• Equity at exit: $468,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $702,251
• Equity at exit: $1,010,051

Cash invested: $145,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33411

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,619/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $-714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,107

Max offer price $393,715

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-567	+0% $-714	+5% $-861	+10% $-1,009
Rent	-10% $-967	-5% $-841	+0% $-714	+5% $-588	+10% $-461
Rate	-1.0pp $-452	-0.5pp $-582	base $-714	+0.5pp $-849	+1.0pp $-986

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,975
• Closing costs: $15,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10863 Dalmany Way Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$3,500	$2.84	26d	1	0.51mi
176 Bellezza Ter Royal Palm Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2058	$3,350	$1.63	12d	1	0.54mi
118 Bobwhite Rd Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$3,200	$2.22	19d	1	0.54mi
179 Dove Cir Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$3,500	$2.13	26d	1	0.61mi
274 River Bluff Ln Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1579	$3,000	$1.90	26d	1	0.80mi
460 Rainbow Springs Ter Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,950	$1.87	26d	1	0.82mi
213 River Bluff Ln Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1579	$2,800	$1.77	26d	1	0.93mi
296 Sandpiper Ave Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$3,100	$1.98	26d	1	1.00mi
2106 Belcara Ct West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1891	$3,400	$1.80	26d	1	1.12mi
182 Sparrow Dr Unit A Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$3,000	$2.02	26d	1	1.12mi
11260 Channing Way Unit 212 Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$3,174	$2.24	26d	1	1.17mi
11300 Channing Ln Unit 102 Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2111	$4,299	$2.04	26d	1	1.17mi
180 Seminole Lakes Dr Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$3,500	$1.89	26d	1	1.18mi
9873 Baywinds Dr #5212 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,450	$1.87	26d	1	1.19mi
2830 Bellarosa Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2046	$3,300	$1.61	26d	1	1.22mi
9901 Baywinds Dr #3202 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,500	$1.91	26d	1	1.22mi
9901 Baywinds Dr #3202 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,200	$0.92	16d	1	1.22mi
9662 Sandpiper Ln West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1961	$3,200	$1.63	26d	1	1.23mi
113 Sandpiper Ave Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,500	$1.95	13d	1	1.25mi
849 Camellia Dr Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1599	$3,400	$2.13	26d	1	1.26mi
100 Sparrow Dr #14 Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,725	$1.57	26d	1	1.28mi
11020 Town Cir Wellington, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$3,143	$3.10	3d	14	1.31mi
100 Sparrow Dr #2 Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,725	$1.49	20d	1	1.34mi
139 Sparrow Dr Royal Palm Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1100	$2,390	$2.17	16d	3	1.35mi
11200 Nicole Dr Wellington, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1404	$4,443	$3.16	0d	33	1.39mi
216 Cordoba Cir Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$3,440	$2.35	1d	1	1.41mi
830 Royal Palm Beach Blvd Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,686	$1.96	1d	1	1.41mi
2108 Shoma Dr Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,400	$1.65	26d	1	1.47mi
1601 Lakeview Dr W Unit 1601 Royal Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1296	$2,375	$1.83	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $519,900
3. 2026-02-08
   price $529,900
4. 2025-12-04
   listed $549,900 Active
5. 2012-01-11
   soldstatus $110,000 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   WOOD KIT CABINETS W/CUSTOM TILED COUNTERTOPS, NEW CARPET IN BDRMS, TILED FAMILY RM, DIN AREA & KIT, MASTER BTH HAS UPGRADED DOUBLE SINK VANITY, NEW AC CONDENSER, INGROUND POOL W/DIAMOND BRIGHT FINISH & NEW PUMP & FILTER, PRIVATELY FENCED REAR YARD, CIRCULAR DRIVE, EASY TO SHOW

6. 2012-01-04
   historical 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   WOOD KIT CABINETS W/CUSTOM TILED COUNTERTOPS, NEW CARPET IN BDRMS, TILED FAMILY RM, DIN AREA & KIT, MASTER BTH HAS UPGRADED DOUBLE SINK VANITY, NEW AC CONDENSER, INGROUND POOL W/DIAMOND BRIGHT FINISH & NEW PUMP & FILTER, PRIVATELY FENCED REAR YARD, CIRCULAR DRIVE, EASY TO SHOW

7. 2011-11-23
   listed $119,900 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   WOOD KIT CABINETS W/CUSTOM TILED COUNTERTOPS, NEW CARPET IN BDRMS, TILED FAMILY RM, DIN AREA & KIT, MASTER BTH HAS UPGRADED DOUBLE SINK VANITY, NEW AC CONDENSER, INGROUND POOL W/DIAMOND BRIGHT FINISH & NEW PUMP & FILTER, PRIVATELY FENCED REAR YARD, CIRCULAR DRIVE, EASY TO SHOW

8. 1991-03-15
   soldstatus $77,900
9. 1988-03-01
   soldstatus $71,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,619 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,315 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: +$696/yr (+$58/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,619
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,075
• − Management: −$3,075
• − Depreciation: −$15,124
• Taxable loss: −$18,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,363
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Royal Palm Beach

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #2039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Royal Palm Beach, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 75,299
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 76,863
• Household income: $92,591
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.04%
• Current HPI: 903.78
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+623.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $519,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $529,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $549,900 Beaches MLS
• 2012-01-11 Sold (MLS) $110,000 Beaches MLS
• 2012-01-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2011-11-23 Listed $119,900 Beaches MLS
• 1991-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,619 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.