485 Barbara Ln

Lakeview, NY 11552

$610,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,199
• Tax + insurance: −$844
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$908
• Net cashflow: $-626/mo
• Annual: $-7,517/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $170,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $610k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $499k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $432k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($573k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $432k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#240 in NY, #3,773 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Malverne Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #266 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($155k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.