485 Barbara Ln · Lakeview, NY 11552

$610,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1951 6,435 sqft lot $519/sqft · 16% below area Est $723k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 1-bath Cape is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a large eat-in kitchen, spacious living room, and full basement, the home offers a solid layout and great potential. Situated on a generous 9,648 sq. ft. corner lot and surrounded by well-maintained homes in the desirable Lakeview neighborhood. The property requires significant updating and renovation and is being sold in as-is condition — ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to customize and create value.

Key facts

• 6,435 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $610k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $499k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $432k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $432k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#240 in NY, #3,773 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Malverne Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #266 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($155k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($573k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $432,489 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $723,495
• List price: $610,000
• Delta: -15.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
538 Champlain Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,150 (-2%)	7mo	$577,000	$502	77
1024 Mahopac	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,337 (+14%)	1mo	$710,000	$531	65
26 Parkside Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	6mo	$410,000	$342	63
747 Janos Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (+5%)	7mo	$745,000	$602	57
1025 Ontario Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0	1,337 (+14%)	4mo	$825,000	$617	56
488 Pershing Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,075 (-9%)	1mo	$670,000	$623	50
36 School St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (-4%)	6mo	$750,000	$668	48
639 Robin Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,262 (+7%)	6mo	$650,000	$515	46
18 School St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,282 (+9%)	3mo	$751,000	$586	46
445 Clinton Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,338 (+14%)	6mo	$650,000	$486	43
724 Thrush Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,324 (+13%)	9mo	$750,000	$566	41
3 Alden Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,316 (+12%)	11mo	$810,000	$616	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-138,783
• Equity at exit: $90,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-172,387
• Equity at exit: $52,742

Cash invested: $170,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11552

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,199
• Tax from tax record: −$590 /mo · $7,080/yr
• Insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$908
• Net cashflow: $-626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,118

Max offer price $499,344

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $152,500
• Closing costs: $18,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Keuka Rd West Hempstead, NY	3.0	1.0	916	$3,000	$3.28	22d	1	0.21mi
582 Washington Ave West Hempstead, NY	4.0	1.0	1440	$4,500	$3.12	13d	1	0.86mi
1 Allen St Unit 1 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	17d	1	1.06mi
345 Walton St West Hempstead, NY	4.0	2.5	1274	$4,525	$3.55	1d	1	1.13mi
80 N Centre Ave Rockville Centre, NY	3.0	1.0–3.5	1254	$5,875	$4.68	1d	1	1.30mi
27 Park Pl Unit 2 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,600	$3.60	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   This 4-bedroom, 1-bath Cape is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a large eat-in kitchen, spacious living room, and full basement, the home offers a solid layout and great potential. Situated on a generous 9,648 sq. ft. corner lot and surrounded by well-maintained homes in the desirable Lakeview neighborhood. The property requires significant updating and renovation and is being sold in as-is condition — ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to customize and create value.

2. 2026-02-18
   listed $610,000 Active 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   This 4-bedroom, 1-bath Cape is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a large eat-in kitchen, spacious living room, and full basement, the home offers a solid layout and great potential. Situated on a generous 9,648 sq. ft. corner lot and surrounded by well-maintained homes in the desirable Lakeview neighborhood. The property requires significant updating and renovation and is being sold in as-is condition — ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to customize and create value.

3. 2026-02-17
   historical $610,000 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   This 4-bedroom, 1-bath Cape is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a large eat-in kitchen, spacious living room, and full basement, the home offers a solid layout and great potential. Situated on a generous 9,648 sq. ft. corner lot and surrounded by well-maintained homes in the desirable Lakeview neighborhood. The property requires significant updating and renovation and is being sold in as-is condition — ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to customize and create value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,080 · $590/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,694 · $725/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,615/yr (+$135/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,169
• − Property taxes: −$7,080
• − Insurance: −$3,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,152
• − Management: −$4,152
• − Depreciation: −$17,745
• Taxable loss: −$18,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malverne Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618210
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $98,154
• Composite: 49.47/100
• National rank: #2002
• State rank: #266 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #3773

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeview, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,174
• Household income: $155,154
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 208.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 18% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Hispanic 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -803.45%
• Current HPI: 335.0721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $610,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Coming Soon $610,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,080 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.