2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,564 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 60 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,145/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$394
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$450
Net cashflow
$-63/mo
Annual
$-750/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.03%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$72,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-750/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (4.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.5% below list).
It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $215k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
Central Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #345 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $224k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29