615 W Elm St W

Walnut Ridge, AR 72476

$124,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $240/mo
• Annual: $2,875/yr
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#351 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lawrence County School District (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #188 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $125k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Walnut Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.