615 W Elm St W · Walnut Ridge, AR 72476

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

$68/sqft · 14% below area Est $145k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained and updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,828 sqft of comfortable living space on a large in-town lot. With a spacious layout and generous room sizes, this home offers plenty of space for everyday living, entertaining, or growing into over time. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2022), all new windows (2022-2023), updated HVAC system (2018), brand-new hot water heater, and new exterior siding (2025). Inside, the home feels bright and open with flexibility to make it your own. Outside, enjoy the convenience of a city lot found in town, complete with a storage shed that conveys. An attic adds valuable storage space or future potent

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Walnut Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#351 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lawrence County School District (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #188 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $125k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,634
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -13.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 W Walnut	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,027 (+11%)	2mo	$223,000	$110	64
300 Colonial Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$129	56
200 Larkspur Ln	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,701 (-7%)	13mo	$170,000	$100	53
721 W Oak St W	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-6%)	16mo	$158,900	$92	52
316 SE 2nd St SE	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-12%)	6mo	$142,500	$88	49
624 5th St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,039 (+12%)	10mo	$50,000	$25	48
1409 Magnolia Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,633 (-11%)	7mo	$172,500	$106	47
220 SE 2nd	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,922 (+5%)	20mo	$242,000	$126	47
117 NE Georgia Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,942 (+6%)	8mo	$75,000	$39	47
611 Pocahontas Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,968 (+8%)	6mo	$252,500	$128	44
410 E Gum St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-13%)	3mo	$170,000	$107	38
413 Kentucky	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-11%)	19mo	$130,000	$80	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $35,756
• Equity at exit: $61,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $99,318
• Equity at exit: $100,353

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72476

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $802/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $275	+0% $240	+5% $204	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $189	+0% $240	+5% $290	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $271	base $240	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $124,900 Active 854-char remark
2. 2026-03-18
   historical
3. 2026-03-01
   status Active
4. 2026-02-02
   historical
5. 2026-01-22
   status Active
6. 2026-01-12
   historical
7. 2026-01-09
   listed $124,900 Active
8. 2024-07-15
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$802
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $2,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 0500082
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,340
• Composite: 20.15/100
• National rank: #8637
• State rank: #188 of 238 in AR

Livability — Walnut Ridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #21939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Ridge, AR
• Population (ZIP): 7,565

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 231.817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+78.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-02 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-01-12 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $124,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+55.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $802 · +58.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.