5635 E Lincoln Dr #34

Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$2,150,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,275
• Tax + insurance: −$1,275
• HOA: −$860
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$903
• Net cashflow: $-10,012/mo
• Annual: $-120,149/yr
• Cap rate: 0.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.96%
• DSCR: 0.11
• 1% rule: 0.20%
• Cash to close: $602,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.15M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10k ($-120k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (82.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (80.0% below list).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.89M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $381k (82.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $230k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $215k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Mohave Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #43 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 799 students, 31% FRL); Saguaro High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #78 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,466 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 17 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.50M; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$370k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 82% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.