5635 E Lincoln Dr #34 · Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$2,150,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 193 Days on market

Built 2025 10,618 sqft lot $1020/sqft · at area comps Est $3408k · 37% under $860/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

To be built by new owner! This'' to be built'' home can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. Designed by Kontexture Architects, this home comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community. The current home is not habitable and is also to listed as vacant land.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10k ($-120k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (82.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (80.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (82.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Mohave Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #43 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 799 students, 31% FRL); Saguaro High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #78 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,466 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $230k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $215k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$370k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.89M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.50M; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,264 (82.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 82% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.20% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.96%
• DSCR: 0.11
• GRM: 41.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,407,758
• List price: $2,150,000
• Delta: -36.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5635 E Lincoln Dr #8	0.00mi	3/2.8 (-1)	2,043 (-3%)	15mo	$1,730,000	$847	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $555,153
• Equity at exit: $1,936,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $2,190,978
• Equity at exit: $4,176,977

Cash invested: $602,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 41.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,275
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,550/yr
• Insurance: −$896
• HOA: −$860
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$903
• Net cashflow: $-10,012

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,975

Max offer price $381,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8,795	-5% $-9,404	+0% $-10,012	+5% $-10,621	+10% $-13,807
Rent	-10% $-10,352	-5% $-10,182	+0% $-10,012	+5% $-9,843	+10% $-9,673
Rate	-1.0pp $-8,930	-0.5pp $-9,466	base $-10,012	+0.5pp $-10,570	+1.0pp $-11,136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $537,500
• Closing costs: $64,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6724 N 58th Pl Paradise Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	2704	$6,750	$2.50	26d	1	0.46mi
5828 E Cactus Wren Rd Paradise Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2588	$13,995	$5.41	26d	1	0.47mi
4959 E Red Rock Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2659	$30,000	$11.28	26d	1	1.22mi
5222 N Saddle Rock Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	2853	$15,000	$5.26	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $860 · $10,320/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-02-04
    price $2,150,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Land sale. This property is being sold with plans.This ''to be built home'' can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. This lot comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Home designed by Kontexture Architects. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community.HOA approval for all plans required. The current home is not habitable and is listed for residential sale as well.

16. 2026-02-04
    price $2,150,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Land sale. This property is being sold with plans.This ''to be built home'' can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. This lot comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Home designed by Kontexture Architects. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community.HOA approval for all plans required. The current home is not habitable and is listed for residential sale as well.

17. 2026-01-30
    price $2,175,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Land sale. This property is being sold with plans.This ''to be built home'' can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. This lot comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Home designed by Kontexture Architects. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community.HOA approval for all plans required. The current home is not habitable and is listed for residential sale as well.

18. 2026-01-30
    price $2,175,000 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Land sale. This property is being sold with plans.This ''to be built home'' can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. This lot comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Home designed by Kontexture Architects. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community.HOA approval for all plans required. The current home is not habitable and is listed for residential sale as well.

19. 2025-12-16
    listed $2,250,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Land sale. This property is being sold with plans.This ''to be built home'' can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. This lot comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Home designed by Kontexture Architects. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community.HOA approval for all plans required. The current home is not habitable and is listed for residential sale as well.

20. 2025-12-10
    listed $2,250,000 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    To be built by new owner! This'' to be built'' home can be yours at the exclusive guard gated community of Mountain Shadows East. Designed by Kontexture Architects, this home comes complete with plans for a 3181 sf, 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home, great room /kitchen open concept floor plan with stunning Camelback views. Town of Paradise Valley permit in place for plans for this home. Fabulous opportunity to own and build in this special community. The current home is not habitable and is also to listed as vacant land.

21. 2025-11-24
    historical
22. 2025-11-07
    price $2,349,000
23. 2025-10-23
    price $2,399,000
24. 2025-10-09
    price $2,449,000
25. 2025-09-10
    listed $2,499,000 Active
26. 2022-07-29
    historical
27. 2022-07-07
    price $1,835,000
28. 2022-03-30
    price $1,735,000
29. 2022-03-15
    price $1,745,000
30. 2022-02-11
    price $1,748,000
31. 2022-02-01
    price $1,758,000
32. 2022-01-27
    price $1,787,900
33. 2022-01-23
    price $1,788,000
34. 2022-01-19
    price $1,798,900
35. 2022-01-07
    price $1,799,000
36. 2022-01-03
    price $1,810,000
37. 2021-12-07
    price $1,829,000
38. 2021-11-26
    price $1,839,000
39. 2021-11-20
    price $1,845,000
40. 2021-11-12
    price $1,849,000
41. 2021-11-09
    price $1,867,500
42. 2021-11-08
    price $1,870,000
43. 2021-11-04
    price $1,890,000
44. 2021-11-02
    price $1,893,000
45. 2021-11-01
    price $1,894,000
46. 2021-10-19
    listed $1,895,000 Active
47. 2021-07-04
    status Pending
48. 2021-07-04
    status Active
49. 2021-06-15
    price $1,999,900
50. 2021-06-15
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,550 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,190 · $1,182/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,640/yr (+$803/mo · 211.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$120,433
• − Property taxes: −$4,550
• − Insurance: −$10,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,129
• − Management: −$4,129
• − HOA: −$10,320
• − Depreciation: −$62,545
• Taxable loss: −$165,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39,660
• After-tax cash flow: $-80,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paradise Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #15675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise Valley, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 17,904
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1305.2% since first listed

77 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $2,150,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $2,150,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $2,175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $2,175,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $2,250,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $2,250,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $2,349,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $2,399,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $2,449,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $2,499,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-07-07 Price Changed $1,835,000 ARMLS
• 2022-03-30 Price Changed $1,735,000 ARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Price Changed $1,745,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-11 Price Changed $1,748,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Price Changed $1,758,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-27 Price Changed $1,787,900 ARMLS
• 2022-01-23 Price Changed $1,788,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Price Changed $1,798,900 ARMLS
• 2022-01-07 Price Changed $1,799,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-03 Price Changed $1,810,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-07 Price Changed $1,829,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-26 Price Changed $1,839,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-20 Price Changed $1,845,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Price Changed $1,849,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Price Changed $1,867,500 ARMLS
• 2021-11-08 Price Changed $1,870,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-04 Price Changed $1,890,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-02 Price Changed $1,893,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-01 Price Changed $1,894,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-19 Listed $1,895,000 ARMLS
• 2021-07-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-07-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-06-15 Price Changed $1,999,900 ARMLS
• 2021-06-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-06-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-06-13 Price Changed $1,999,950 ARMLS
• 2021-06-11 Listed $1,999,990 ARMLS
• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $1,500,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-02 Sold (MLS) $1,500,000 ARMLS
• 2021-05-05 Listed $1,500,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,250,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) $1,250,000 ARMLS
• 2021-02-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-02-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-02-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-02-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-01-26 Listed $1,395,000 ARMLS
• 2021-01-26 Listed $1,395,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-27 Listed $1,200,000 ARMLS
• 2019-02-20 Listed $1,200,000 ARMLS
• 2015-10-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $705,250 Public Records
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) $705,250 ARMLS
• 2015-10-16 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2015-09-11 Price Changed $749,000 ARMLS
• 2015-08-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2015-07-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2015-06-20 Listed $790,000 ARMLS
• 2015-05-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-01-22 Listed $849,000 ARMLS
• 2011-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $452,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-29 Sold (MLS) $452,000 ARMLS
• 2011-06-29 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2011-06-21 Listed $515,000 ARMLS
• 2011-05-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-03-17 Listed $525,000 ARMLS
• 2001-06-25 Sold (MLS) $350,000 ARMLS
• 2001-04-04 Listed $359,900 ARMLS
• 2001-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1985-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,550 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.