103 Cataline Ave

Antioch, CA 94509

$419,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,645/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (25.7% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $311k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marsh Elementary (530 students, 78% FRL); Antioch Middle (660 students, 79% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $419k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.