103 Cataline Ave · Antioch, CA 94509

$419,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1951 5,602 sqft lot $258/sqft · 15% below area Est $495k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

Key facts

• Original wood floor
• Ranch-style home
• Tile flooring

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOOR
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage; Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 1951; Composition roof
• Construction: Detached construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Free standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Shower stall, granite counters, window in bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Covered patio; Pets allowed; Single-story
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (220V in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marsh Elementary (530 students, 78% FRL); Antioch Middle (660 students, 79% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $419k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,165 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $494,683
• List price: $419,000
• Delta: -15.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Cataline Ave	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,624 (0%)	0mo	$409,000	$252	98
2713 Del Oro Cir	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,478 (-9%)	1mo	$555,000	$376	67
3021 Greenhall Way	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,649 (+2%)	5mo	$583,950	$354	64
1428 Saint Frances Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,573 (-3%)	6mo	$550,000	$350	64
1016 San Carlos Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,473 (-9%)	5mo	$570,000	$387	59
312 Putnam St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,565 (-4%)	5mo	$470,000	$300	56
30 W 16th St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,674 (+3%)	1mo	$530,000	$317	52
2924 Ventura Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+5%)	7mo	$528,000	$309	52
722 W 11th St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-5%)	6mo	$525,000	$341	51
1412 Buchanan Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (-9%)	6mo	$580,000	$394	51
2809 Fortuna Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (-14%)	1mo	$555,000	$399	50
18 W 17th St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-14%)	6mo	$535,000	$382	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-82,635
• Equity at exit: $62,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-106,935
• Equity at exit: $36,227

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,681/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,285

Max offer price $394,779

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $-19	+0% $-137	+5% $-256	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-260	+0% $-137	+5% $-14	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $-31	base $-137	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2202 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	4.0	2.5	1487	$3,500	$2.35	45d	1	0.43mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	45d	1	0.44mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	45d	1	0.45mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	0.46mi
612 W 15th St Unit B Antioch, CA	4.0	1.0	2014	$3,200	$1.59	0d	1	0.52mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	6d	1	0.62mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	45d	1	0.63mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,400	$2.36	0d	10	0.64mi
22 Wightman Ct Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	7d	1	0.70mi
2928 Rio Grande Dr Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1573	$3,300	$2.10	16d	1	0.72mi
1508 Crestview Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,949	$2.46	45d	1	0.75mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	45d	1	0.75mi
304 Robert St Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1201	$3,069	$2.56	26d	1	0.83mi
1209 Tulip Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,995	$2.23	45d	1	0.85mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$3,059	$3.65	0d	8	0.85mi
108 W 5th St Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1414	$3,150	$2.23	9d	1	1.13mi
2004 Cavallo Rd Unit A Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,450	$2.30	4d	1	1.20mi
3513 Clayburn Rd Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$3,500	$2.86	45d	1	1.22mi
108 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,695	$2.45	45d	1	1.32mi
141 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1236	$2,500	$2.02	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $419,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $419,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $419,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $419,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $419,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $419,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2010-12-29
   soldstatus $146,895 Sold 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

10. 2010-10-15
    status Pending 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

11. 2010-10-05
    price $139,900 Price Change 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

12. 2010-09-08
    price $149,900 Price Change 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

13. 2010-07-06
    price $185,000 Price Change 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

14. 2010-06-26
    status Back On Market 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

15. 2010-06-18
    historical 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

16. 2010-06-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

17. 2010-06-16
    listed $189,000 New 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

18. 2010-06-16
    listed New

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Nice ranch that could sparkle with your TLC. Newer kitchen and tile work. Vanity missing in bathroom. Come take a look and see what a bit of work can do!!! Converted garage with permits unknown.

19. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $236,000
20. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $236,000
21. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $236,000
22. 2002-02-05
    historical
23. 2002-02-05
    historical
24. 2001-11-20
    listed $229,950
25. 2001-11-13
    listed $229,950
26. 2000-01-11
    soldstatus $143,000
27. 2000-01-07
    soldstatus $142,750
28. 1999-11-09
    historical
29. 1999-09-07
    listed $139,950
30. 1977-10-28
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$2,681
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$9,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,177
• After-tax cash flow: $532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+193.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2010-12-29 Sold (MLS) $146,895 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-10-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-10-05 Price Changed $139,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-09-08 Price Changed $149,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-07-06 Price Changed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-26 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-16 Listed $189,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-16 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $236,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-01 Sold (MLS) $236,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-03-01 Sold (MLS) $236,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-02-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-02-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-11-20 Listed $229,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-11-13 Listed $229,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-07 Sold (MLS) $142,750 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-11-09 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-09-07 Listed $139,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1977-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,681 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.