4968 Richard Dr

Lowell, IN 46356

$393,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,795 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax + insurance: −$656
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-510/mo
• Annual: $-6,122/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $110,292

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $394k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.9% in Lowell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.