4968 Richard Dr · Lowell, IN 46356

$393,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $219/sqft · 15% below area Est $462k · 15% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NOT YET BUILT, this is our WASHINGTON model. Features include a great room on the main level, with a vaulted ceiling. The next level up features the kitchen with GRANITE counters, crown molding, soft close kitchen cabinetry, center island and pantry, PRIMARY BEDROOM with tray ceiling, walk-in closet and ENSUITE bath. A laundry room and powder room can also be found on this level. A few more steps up are two additional bedrooms, both with walk-in closets, and a full hallway bath. Additional features include QUARTZ VANITY tops in all bathrooms, one PAINT COLOR included, black or brushed nickel lighting and hardware, lower level with OPTIONS to finish. Need more? This plan has variations which include a FIFTH LEVEL BASEMENT or up to FIVE BEDROOMS. Exterior features include a tasteful board and batten/vinyl exterior, attached garage with opener installed, full LANDSCAPING package, and BUILDER'S WARRANTY. Many options for customization of our 18 floor plans are possible to include structural changes such as a 3 car garage, 5' garage extension, slab, or basement options, as well as for other finishes such as for a fireplace, custom tile shower, exterior masonry, etc. Photos are of a previously built home.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.9% in Lowell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $280,000 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,798
• List price: $393,900
• Delta: -14.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4905 Stephen Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,795 (0%)	5mo	$389,300	$217	93
4863 Richard Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,864 (+4%)	1mo	$516,665	$277	91
4839 Richard Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-4%)	1mo	$457,500	$265	89
18345 Judith Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	2mo	$493,300	$305	75
18476 Platinum Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-1%)	4mo	$346,000	$194	74
4906 Southview Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (-4%)	6mo	$385,000	$222	74
17820 Hillside Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,792 (-0%)	1mo	$365,901	$204	60
18349 Kaiti Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-10%)	2mo	$361,000	$223	59
2305 Hillcrest Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,757 (-2%)	6mo	$370,000	$211	59
1328 Hilltop Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,912 (+6%)	1mo	$269,900	$141	50
17798 Violette Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,637 (-9%)	6mo	$359,466	$220	47
1634 Northwood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-14%)	5mo	$310,000	$200	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-96,278
• Equity at exit: $58,732

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-125,505
• Equity at exit: $34,057

Cash invested: $110,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$492 /mo · $5,908/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,446

Max offer price $320,080

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,475
• Closing costs: $11,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4507 W 173rd Ave Lowell, IN	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,800	$1.47	18d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $393,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $393,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $393,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $393,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $393,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $393,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $393,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $393,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $393,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $393,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $393,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $393,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $393,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1218 chars)

    NOT YET BUILT, this is our WASHINGTON model. Features include a great room on the main level, with a vaulted ceiling. The next level up features the kitchen with GRANITE counters, crown molding, soft close kitchen cabinetry, center island and pantry, PRIMARY BEDROOM with tray ceiling, walk-in closet and ENSUITE bath. A laundry room and powder room can also be found on this level. A few more steps up are two additional bedrooms, both with walk-in closets, and a full hallway bath. Additional features include QUARTZ VANITY tops in all bathrooms, one PAINT COLOR included, black or brushed nickel lighting and hardware, lower level with OPTIONS to finish. Need more? This plan has variations which include a FIFTH LEVEL BASEMENT or up to FIVE BEDROOMS. Exterior features include a tasteful board and batten/vinyl exterior, attached garage with opener installed, full LANDSCAPING package, and BUILDER'S WARRANTY. Many options for customization of our 18 floor plans are possible to include structural changes such as a 3 car garage, 5' garage extension, slab, or basement options, as well as for other finishes such as for a fireplace, custom tile shower, exterior masonry, etc. Photos are of a previously built home.

15. 2026-04-14
    listed $393,900 Active 1218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1218 chars)

    NOT YET BUILT, this is our WASHINGTON model. Features include a great room on the main level, with a vaulted ceiling. The next level up features the kitchen with GRANITE counters, crown molding, soft close kitchen cabinetry, center island and pantry, PRIMARY BEDROOM with tray ceiling, walk-in closet and ENSUITE bath. A laundry room and powder room can also be found on this level. A few more steps up are two additional bedrooms, both with walk-in closets, and a full hallway bath. Additional features include QUARTZ VANITY tops in all bathrooms, one PAINT COLOR included, black or brushed nickel lighting and hardware, lower level with OPTIONS to finish. Need more? This plan has variations which include a FIFTH LEVEL BASEMENT or up to FIVE BEDROOMS. Exterior features include a tasteful board and batten/vinyl exterior, attached garage with opener installed, full LANDSCAPING package, and BUILDER'S WARRANTY. Many options for customization of our 18 floor plans are possible to include structural changes such as a 3 car garage, 5' garage extension, slab, or basement options, as well as for other finishes such as for a fireplace, custom tile shower, exterior masonry, etc. Photos are of a previously built home.

16. 2026-01-29
    listed $453,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,065
• − Property taxes: −$5,908
• − Insurance: −$1,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$11,459
• Taxable loss: −$13,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lowell, IN
• City population: 19,396
• Population (ZIP): 19,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $393,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $453,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid