1235 Packsaddle Cir

Del Rio, TX 78840

$239,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,626/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,577/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• San Felipe-Del Rio CISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #667 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Lonnie Green Jr El (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 791 students, 74% FRL); Del Rio Middle (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,478 students, 74% FRL); Del Rio H S (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,470 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 555 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Val Verde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Val Verde County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.