1235 Packsaddle Cir · Del Rio, TX 78840

$239,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 116 Days on market

Built 2017 $159/sqft · 31% below area Est $345k · 31% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TWO HOMES ON 5.1 ACRES-COUNTRY LIVING CLOSE TO THE CITY LIMITES. Hurry -2 for the price of 1! This unique property offers 5.1 acres of ranch style living just minutes from city limits. Main house: 4 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. GUEST HOUSE: 2 Bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Both homes feature ductless mini-split systems for energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Property highlights include: 3 Storage Sheds, 2 chicken coops, 3 fully fenced corrals. Perfect for horses or livestock. Plenty of space for gardening, animals, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city amenities. Don't miss this rare opportunity!

Key facts

• 2 chicken coops
• 5.1 acres
• 3 storage sheds

Tags

• 5.1 ACRES
• DUCTLESS MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS
• 3 STORAGE SHEDS
• 2 CHICKEN COOPS
• 3 FULLY FENCED CORRALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• San Felipe-Del Rio CISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #667 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Lonnie Green Jr El (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 791 students, 74% FRL); Del Rio Middle (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,478 students, 74% FRL); Del Rio H S (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,470 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Val Verde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Val Verde County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,566 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,318
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -30.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-49,559
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-63,743
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78840

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $215,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-64	+0% $-131	+5% $-199	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-196	+0% $-131	+5% $-67	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-71	base $-131	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $239,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $239,000 Pending 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $239,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $239,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $239,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    TWO HOMES ON 5.1 ACRES-COUNTRY LIVING CLOSE TO THE CITY LIMITES. Hurry -2 for the price of 1! This unique property offers 5.1 acres of ranch style living just minutes from city limits. Main house: 4 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. GUEST HOUSE: 2 Bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Both homes feature ductless mini-split systems for energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Property highlights include: 3 Storage Sheds, 2 chicken coops, 3 fully fenced corrals. Perfect for horses or livestock. Plenty of space for gardening, animals, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city amenities. Don't miss this rare opportunity!

11. 2026-04-23
    price $242,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    TWO HOMES ON 5.1 ACRES-COUNTRY LIVING CLOSE TO THE CITY LIMITES. Hurry -2 for the price of 1! This unique property offers 5.1 acres of ranch style living just minutes from city limits. Main house: 4 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. GUEST HOUSE: 2 Bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Both homes feature ductless mini-split systems for energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Property highlights include: 3 Storage Sheds, 2 chicken coops, 3 fully fenced corrals. Perfect for horses or livestock. Plenty of space for gardening, animals, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city amenities. Don't miss this rare opportunity!

12. 2026-03-25
    price $249,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    TWO HOMES ON 5.1 ACRES-COUNTRY LIVING CLOSE TO THE CITY LIMITES. Hurry -2 for the price of 1! This unique property offers 5.1 acres of ranch style living just minutes from city limits. Main house: 4 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. GUEST HOUSE: 2 Bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Both homes feature ductless mini-split systems for energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Property highlights include: 3 Storage Sheds, 2 chicken coops, 3 fully fenced corrals. Perfect for horses or livestock. Plenty of space for gardening, animals, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city amenities. Don't miss this rare opportunity!

13. 2026-02-12
    listed $255,000 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    TWO HOMES ON 5.1 ACRES-COUNTRY LIVING CLOSE TO THE CITY LIMITES. Hurry -2 for the price of 1! This unique property offers 5.1 acres of ranch style living just minutes from city limits. Main house: 4 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. GUEST HOUSE: 2 Bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Both homes feature ductless mini-split systems for energy efficiency and year-round comfort. Property highlights include: 3 Storage Sheds, 2 chicken coops, 3 fully fenced corrals. Perfect for horses or livestock. Plenty of space for gardening, animals, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city amenities. Don't miss this rare opportunity!

14. 2024-12-18
    price $324,900
15. 2024-09-10
    price $334,900
16. 2024-08-22
    listed $360,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,620/yr (+$302/mo · 480.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Felipe-Del Rio CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838900
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,582
• Composite: 24.04/100
• National rank: #7766
• State rank: #667 of 826 in TX

Livability — Del Rio

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Val Verde County · 47,256 people
• City population: 47,256
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $66,084
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1111.0

Population outlook (Val Verde County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,073 people
• By 2030: 47,468 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 45,930 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 43,904 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 38,126 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 26,217 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% White 15% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Val Verde

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.6) · D 36.2% · R 62.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.6 2020: R+9.9 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.95%
• Current HPI: 161.762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $239,000 DRBORMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $242,000 DRBORMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $249,000 DRBORMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $255,000 DRBORMLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $324,900 DRBORMLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $334,900 DRBORMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $360,000 DRBORMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.