17 Turning Lay Creek Rd

Morganton, GA 30560

$275,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $779/mo
• Annual: $9,351/yr
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.14%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#456 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Fannin County (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #51 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.7% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.