17 Turning Lay Creek Rd · Morganton, GA 30560

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1983 2.86 ac lot $212/sqft · 8% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

Key facts

• 2.86 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.7% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#456 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Fannin County (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #51 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 306 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.14%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $598,848
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -54.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,947
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $67,717
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30560

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $819/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $935	-5% $857	+0% $779	+5% $701	+10% $624
Rent	-10% $539	-5% $659	+0% $779	+5% $899	+10% $1,020
Rate	-1.0pp $918	-0.5pp $849	base $779	+0.5pp $708	+1.0pp $636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

2. 2026-03-08
   status Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

3. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

4. 2026-02-19
   status Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

5. 2026-02-19
   price $275,000 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

6. 2026-02-02
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

7. 2026-01-16
   price $290,000 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

8. 2026-01-05
   price $295,000 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

9. 2025-12-21
   listed $305,000 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Whether your looking for a move in ready home or a place to spruce up and make your own, you have found the right fit for you. Located in between Blue Ridge and Blairsville, its a short distance to Lake Blue Ridge, Lake Nottely and so many other attractions. Looking for that "needs a little TLC" property? This property has endless possibilities and is in the perfect location. A must come see.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,711/yr (+$143/mo · 208.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$819
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,922
• − Management: −$2,922
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $5,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $8,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fannin County
• NCES district ID: 1302100
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,693
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5597
• State rank: #51 of 174 in GA

Livability — Morganton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #21670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,194

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,218 people
• By 2030: 25,519 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 25,548 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 25,008 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 23,359 · -7.4%
• By 2100: 20,129 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.4% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+64.6 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.58%
• Current HPI: 316.822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2026-03-08 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2026-02-27 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $275,000 NEGBOR
• 2026-02-02 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $290,000 NEGBOR
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $295,000 NEGBOR
• 2025-12-21 Listed $305,000 NEGBOR

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $819 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.