3 White Birch Ln

Cambridge, NY 12816

$240,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-262/mo
• Annual: $-3,147/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#463 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cambridge Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cambridge Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 417 students, 52% FRL); Cambridge Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 392 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 28% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $240k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.