3 White Birch Ln · Cambridge, NY 12816

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1995 0.59 ac lot $176/sqft · 16% below area Est $287k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome To 3 White Birch Ln! Located Near Lake Lauderdale, Hedges Lake, Schoolhouse Lake, And The Dead Lake. Parcel Highlights: -Attached Car Garage -Double Driveway -Slab -Corner Lot On A Private Cul-De-Sac Road -0.59 Acres -Front And Backyard Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract. Owner Is Agent.

Key facts

• Updated ranch home
• New cabinets
• New lvp flooring

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH HOME
• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Total parking for 4 vehicles; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Shingle/asphalt roof; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Rear enclosed porch; Paved driveway; Chain link fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Wall cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Paddle fan; Basement with pillar/post/pier
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#463 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cambridge Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cambridge Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 417 students, 52% FRL); Cambridge Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 392 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 28% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $240k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $164,881 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,907
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -16.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $113,974
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $348,705
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12816

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,981

Max offer price $193,670

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $240,000 763-char remark
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $250,000 Active 763-char remark
17. 2026-04-09
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Welcome To 3 White Birch Ln! Located Near Lake Lauderdale, Hedges Lake, Schoolhouse Lake, And The Dead Lake. Parcel Highlights: -Attached Car Garage -Double Driveway -Slab -Corner Lot On A Private Cul-De-Sac Road -0.59 Acres -Front And Backyard Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract. Owner Is Agent.

18. 2025-11-18
    historical Contingent 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Welcome To 3 White Birch Ln! Located Near Lake Lauderdale, Hedges Lake, Schoolhouse Lake, And The Dead Lake. Parcel Highlights: -Attached Car Garage -Double Driveway -Slab -Corner Lot On A Private Cul-De-Sac Road -0.59 Acres -Front And Backyard Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract. Owner Is Agent.

19. 2025-11-12
    price $89,900 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Welcome To 3 White Birch Ln! Located Near Lake Lauderdale, Hedges Lake, Schoolhouse Lake, And The Dead Lake. Parcel Highlights: -Attached Car Garage -Double Driveway -Slab -Corner Lot On A Private Cul-De-Sac Road -0.59 Acres -Front And Backyard Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract. Owner Is Agent.

20. 2025-10-21
    listed $94,900 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Welcome To 3 White Birch Ln! Located Near Lake Lauderdale, Hedges Lake, Schoolhouse Lake, And The Dead Lake. Parcel Highlights: -Attached Car Garage -Double Driveway -Slab -Corner Lot On A Private Cul-De-Sac Road -0.59 Acres -Front And Backyard Property Needs Rehab. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract. Owner Is Agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,475 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$791/yr (+$66/mo · 31.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cambridge Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606210
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,182
• Composite: 46.16/100
• National rank: #2498
• State rank: #322 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #8067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,692

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.95%
• Current HPI: 324.8513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $240,000 Global MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $250,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-09 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-18 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $94,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,475 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.