1311 Half Moon Bay Dr

Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520

$525,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · Built 2003 · Townhouse · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$637
• HOA: −$465
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$856
• Net cashflow: $-634/mo
• Annual: $-7,604/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.72%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-634 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (22.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $408k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Croton-Harmon Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #100 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carrie E Tompkins School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 567 students, 8% FRL); Pierre Van Cortlandt School (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B+, #133 of 729 statewide, top 18%, 472 students, 11% FRL); Croton-Harmon High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 486 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $344k; list at $525k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Croton-on-Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($143k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.