1311 Half Moon Bay Dr · Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520

$525,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · Townhouse · 12 Days on market

Built 2003 2,614 sqft lot $434/sqft · 20% below area Est $660k · 20% under $465/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sought-after Half Moon Bay single-level living featuring two bedrooms and two full baths, with a sunlit living room, gas fireplace, with windows on three sides. The primary suite has an ensuite bath and two closets. The private balcony provides the perfect outdoor space and overlooks the grounds. Croton-on-Hudson, named the "Best Place to Live in New York" by USA Today, really IS all you could wish for, especially at Half Moon Bay, a one of a kind Hudson Riverfront resort townhome community with two pools, clubhouses, Jacuzzis, tennis courts; also sauna, playground, free jitney to MetroNorth railroad, riverfront promenade, and bike trails right outside your door. Easy stroll to Vi

Key facts

• $465 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported from public records
• HOA & community: Association: Half Moon Bay; Monthly association fee of $465; One-time reserve contribution of $1,395 at closing; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated entry, landscaping and grounds maintenance, parking, playground, pool, recreation facilities, sauna, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, and trash service; Association fee covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (1 space); No carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electric service: Con-Edison; Public sewer; Private trash collection
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; One-level entry; Three stories total
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Basketball court; Courtyard; Garden; Juliet balcony; Mailbox; Playground; Private entrance; Tennis courts; Outdoor in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Gas fireplace
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Top-floor location (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-634 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $408k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Croton-on-Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Croton-Harmon Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #100 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carrie E Tompkins School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 567 students, 8% FRL); Pierre Van Cortlandt School (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B+, #133 of 729 statewide, top 18%, 472 students, 11% FRL); Croton-Harmon High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 486 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($143k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $344k; list at $525k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $407,797 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.72%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $659,692
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -20.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1102 Half Moon Bay Dr	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,053 (-13%)	21mo	$585,000	$556	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-125,230
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-160,200
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10520

• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,354/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$465
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$856
• Net cashflow: $-634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,880

Max offer price $413,059

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-336	-5% $-485	+0% $-634	+5% $-782	+10% $-931
Rent	-10% $-956	-5% $-795	+0% $-634	+5% $-473	+10% $-312
Rate	-1.0pp $-369	-0.5pp $-500	base $-634	+0.5pp $-770	+1.0pp $-908

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1309 Half Moon Bay Dr Croton on Hudson, NY	2.0	2.0	1069	$4,200	$3.93	22d	1	0.04mi
25 S Riverside Ave Unit 306 Croton-On-Hudson, NY	1.0	1.0	775	$3,500	$4.52	45d	1	0.91mi
25 S Riverside Ave Unit 208 Croton-On-Hudson, NY	2.0	2.0	1410	$5,700	$4.04	9d	1	0.91mi
25 S Riverside Ave Unit 107 Croton-On-Hudson, NY	1.0	1.0	772	$3,300	$4.27	9d	1	0.91mi
9 Stanley Ave Unit 2 Ossining, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,550	$2.68	0d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $465 · $5,580/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $525,000 Active 1006-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   historical $525,000 1006-char remark
3. 2004-05-18
   soldstatus $344,188

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,354 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,613 · $551/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,259/yr (+$188/mo · 51.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$4,354
• − Insurance: −$3,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,915
• − Management: −$3,915
• − HOA: −$5,580
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$16,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Croton-Harmon Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608580
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $115,799
• Composite: 64.37/100
• National rank: #549
• State rank: #100 of 590 in NY

Livability — Croton-on-Hudson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Croton-on-Hudson, NY
• County: Westchester County · 709,332 people
• City population: 12,368
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,368
• Household income: $142,791
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -589.29%
• Current HPI: 249.6641
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+52.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $344,188 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,354 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.