11953 Cove Ct

Adelanto, CA 92301

$429,999D-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-613/mo
• Annual: $-7,356/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-613 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 615 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $430k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,579/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.