11953 Cove Ct · Adelanto, CA 92301

$429,999

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2008 7,222 sqft lot Est $411k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home has 2 master bedrooms with walkin closets and their own bathrooms. One of them is at the front of the house and has its own entrance. Backyard is gated all the way around. Laundry hook up is in the house, wide open space in the kitchen. This home is on a quiet culdesac street close to freeway and shopping.

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Private entrance
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• HOME OFFICE
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 0-1 Unit per acre lot characteristic; Total of 1 unit on property
• HOA & community: Curbs; Street lighting; Sidewalks; Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway; Garage with front entry
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Water available; Sewer available; Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: House; One story; Front entry; Entry level 1
• Construction: Tile roof; No common walls
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Eating area in kitchen; Microwave; Gas oven; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom; Guest/maid's quarters; Bonus room; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double sinks; Walk-in shower; Shower over tub; Exhaust fan(s); Remodeled bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Central cooling (air conditioning)
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Ceiling fan(s); Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 615 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,584/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $430k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,375 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $410,872
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11967 Spring Hill Ct	0.11mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,771 (0%)	7mo	$410,000	$232	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $199,656
• Equity at exit: $387,377

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $627,810
• Equity at exit: $835,393

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92301

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 615
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,598/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,355

Max offer price $322,340

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-366	-5% $-488	+0% $-609	+5% $-731	+10% $-853
Rent	-10% $-814	-5% $-711	+0% $-609	+5% $-507	+10% $-405
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-500	base $-609	+0.5pp $-721	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,999 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,999 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,999 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $429,999 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $429,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,598 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,268 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$670/yr (+$56/mo · 25.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$2,598
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$15,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Adelanto

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1250
• US rank: #26338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adelanto, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 38,577
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,577
• Household income: $68,676
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% Black 15% White 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.09%
• Current HPI: 453.6071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+296.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $429,999 CRMLS
• 2012-03-06 Sold (MLS) $108,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,598 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.