3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,948 sqft ·
Built 1987
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$16,187/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$9,413
Tax + insurance
−$2,157
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,399
Net cashflow
$1,217/mo
Annual
$14,603/yr
Cap rate
7.11%
Cash-on-cash
2.91%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$502,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.62M (9.8% below list).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.69M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.62M (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $24k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#979 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, schools B; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $1.20M; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$115k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 0.7% in Malibu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $16,187/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($197k/yr) (locally 420% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3M65P853Q4VN0N
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29