4555- LOT 2A Pompey Center Rd

Manlius, NY 13104

$80,000B

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,956 sqft · Built 2005 · Land · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $2,051/mo
• Annual: $24,611/yr
• Cap rate: 37.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.87%
• DSCR: 5.89
• 1% rule: 4.12%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in NY, #2,200 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 37.1% vs local median 1.8% in Manlius — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.