4555- LOT 2A Pompey Center Rd · Manlius, NY 13104

$80,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,956 sqft · Land · 28 Days on market

Built 2005 14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful wooded building lot over an acre in size, offering privacy and natural beauty with a peaceful creek running through the property. Located within the sought-after Fayetteville-Manlius School District, this lot is part of a subdivision in progress and provides the perfect setting to build your dream home. All utilities are available, making the building process convenient. Enjoy the blend of nature and country living, just minutes from shopping, dining, and schools.

Key facts

• Wooded building lot
• Utilities available
• Peaceful creek

Tags

• WOODED BUILDING LOT
• PEACEFUL CREEK
• UTILITIES AVAILABLE
• SUBDIVISION IN PROGRESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.1% vs local median 1.8% in Manlius — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in NY, #2,200 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.87%
• DSCR: 5.89
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $117,708
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.09×
• Total profit: $270,896
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13104

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $2,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,106	-5% $2,079	+0% $2,051	+5% $2,023	+10% $1,996
Rent	-10% $1,791	-5% $1,921	+0% $2,051	+5% $2,181	+10% $2,311
Rate	-1.0pp $2,091	-0.5pp $2,071	base $2,051	+0.5pp $2,030	+1.0pp $2,009

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4489 Pompey Center Rd Manlius, NY	4.0	2.5	2252	$3,300	$1.47	14d	1	0.25mi
4909 Edgeworth Dr Manlius, NY	4.0	4.0	2410	$3,600	$1.49	14d	1	1.04mi
4618 Brickyard Falls Rd Manlius, NY	4.0	2.5	2082	$2,900	$1.39	45d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-12
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-09-05
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,164
• − Management: −$3,164
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $24,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,955
• After-tax cash flow: $18,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618330
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,156
• Composite: 71.12/100
• National rank: #238
• State rank: #49 of 590 in NY

Livability — Manlius

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,504

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.90%
• Current HPI: 301.2994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-12 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $80,000 CNYIS