175 CR 481

Nixon, TX 78143

$72,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Pending · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $527/mo
• Annual: $6,321/yr
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.14%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $20,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($501 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#878 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockdale ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #232 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockdale El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 397 students, 54% FRL); Stockdale J H (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 199 students, 53% FRL); Stockdale H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 257 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.