175 CR 481 · Nixon, TX 78143

$72,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1988 0.48 ac lot Est $73k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3/2 single wide recently refreshed on . 48 acres, zoned to Stockdale ISD. Selling AS IS.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 141 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#878 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockdale ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #232 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockdale El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 397 students, 54% FRL); Stockdale H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 257 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($501 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.14%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,675
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 CR 481	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,425 (0%)	0mo	$72,500	$51	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $42,286
• Equity at exit: $32,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $103,524
• Equity at exit: $50,239

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78143

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $547	+0% $527	+5% $506	+10% $486
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $477	+0% $527	+5% $577	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $563	-0.5pp $545	base $527	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-08
   historical Active Option
3. 2025-10-13
   price $72,500
4. 2025-10-13
   status Back on Market
5. 2025-10-08
   historical Active Option
6. 2025-09-09
   listed $85,000 New
7. 2024-02-20
   soldstatus
8. 1999-12-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$602/yr (+$50/mo · 83.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $5,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $5,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockdale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841610
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,496
• Composite: 40.1/100
• National rank: #3805
• State rank: #232 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nixon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #15855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 177

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 75% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-08 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $72,500 LERA
• 2025-10-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-08 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-09-09 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2024-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · +1931.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.