825 Sierra Dr

Hackettstown, NJ 07840-1672

$275,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1994 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$493
• HOA: −$298
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-494/mo
• Annual: $-5,923/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#128 in NJ, #3,456 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Great Meadows Regional School District (rural): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #183 of 472 in NJ (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $275k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.