20401 Crane Pl

Ocean Park, WA 98640

$89,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 442 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $1,494/mo
• Annual: $17,929/yr
• Cap rate: 26.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.95%
• DSCR: 4.20
• 1% rule: 2.92%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 442 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $89k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 442 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.