2 Emma's Path

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$3,375,000C-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,954 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $31,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,699
• Tax + insurance: −$2,577
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,554
• Net cashflow: $4,380/mo
• Annual: $52,566/yr
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $945,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $3.38M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.12M (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.97M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.97M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $287k of equity ($23k loan paydown + $264k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.77M; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $945k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$459k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.