2 Emma's Path · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$3,375,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 2019 0.68 ac lot $854/sqft · 16% above area Est $2951k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet luxury meets Hamptons ease at 2 Emma’s Path. Set on 0.68 acres in coveted Remsenburg, this 4,000 SF custom retreat delivers space, style, and total privacy. Four bedrooms, 3.5 baths, soaring vaulted ceilings, and sunlit open living create a home that lives beautifully year-round. A chef’s kitchen anchors the main level, while a serene primary suite and thoughtfully designed guest wings offer flexibility for hosting, work, or retreat. Upstairs, a versatile loft adds bonus space; below, a full walk-out basement and 3-car garage with infrared + steam sauna elevate everyday living. Outside is pure resort living, heated saltwater pool, brand-new hot tub, bluestone patio with wood-burning fireplace + pizza oven, outdoor shower, and lush, fully fenced grounds. Private. Polished. Perfectly positioned, make it yours. A rare Remsenburg offering, designed to unwind, entertain, and escape. This listing may include images that have been digitally altered or virtually staged. Original, unedited images are available upon request.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Brand-new hot tub
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• VERSATILE LOFT
• FULL WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• BRAND-NEW HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $3.38M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.12M (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.97M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $287k of equity ($23k loan paydown + $264k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $945k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$459k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.97M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.77M; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,970,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,951,471
• List price: $3,375,000
• Delta: 14.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Rogers Ln	0.57mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,978 (+1%)	1mo	$2,325,000	$584	61
49 Tuthill Ln	0.74mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,900 (-1%)	8mo	$2,420,000	$621	48
11A Brushy Neck Ln	0.70mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,643 (-8%)	15mo	$3,101,000	$851	31
44 Bridle Path	0.64mi	4/6.5	4,220 (+7%)	24mo	$1,750,000	$415	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $1,626,713
• Equity at exit: $2,520,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $4,508,531
• Equity at exit: $4,961,467

Cash invested: $945,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $31,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,699
• Tax from tax record: −$1,171 /mo · $14,047/yr
• Insurance: −$1,406
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,554
• Net cashflow: $4,380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $25,665

Max offer price $3,375,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $843,750
• Closing costs: $101,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Basket Neck Ln Remsenburg, NY	4.0	4.5	4759	$9,000	$1.89	2d	1	0.83mi
3 Pine Grove Ct Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3500	$35,000	$10.00	22d	1	0.84mi
13 Buttercup Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	4.5	3278	$25,000	$7.63	5d	1	1.29mi
8 Sweetgrass Rd Westhampton, NY	5.0	4.5	4050	$13,000	$3.21	1d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,375,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,375,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,375,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,375,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,375,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,375,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $3,375,000 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Quiet luxury meets Hamptons ease at 2 Emma’s Path. Set on 0.68 acres in coveted Remsenburg, this 4,000 SF custom retreat delivers space, style, and total privacy. Four bedrooms, 3.5 baths, soaring vaulted ceilings, and sunlit open living create a home that lives beautifully year-round. A chef’s kitchen anchors the main level, while a serene primary suite and thoughtfully designed guest wings offer flexibility for hosting, work, or retreat. Upstairs, a versatile loft adds bonus space; below, a full walk-out basement and 3-car garage with infrared + steam sauna elevate everyday living. Outside is pure resort living, heated saltwater pool, brand-new hot tub, bluestone patio with wood-burning fireplace + pizza oven, outdoor shower, and lush, fully fenced grounds. Private. Polished. Perfectly positioned, make it yours. A rare Remsenburg offering, designed to unwind, entertain, and escape. This listing may include images that have been digitally altered or virtually staged. Original, unedited images are available upon request.

16. 2025-11-24
    listed $3,495,000 Active 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Quiet luxury meets Hamptons ease at 2 Emma’s Path. Set on 0.68 acres in coveted Remsenburg, this 4,000 SF custom retreat delivers space, style, and total privacy. Four bedrooms, 3.5 baths, soaring vaulted ceilings, and sunlit open living create a home that lives beautifully year-round. A chef’s kitchen anchors the main level, while a serene primary suite and thoughtfully designed guest wings offer flexibility for hosting, work, or retreat. Upstairs, a versatile loft adds bonus space; below, a full walk-out basement and 3-car garage with infrared + steam sauna elevate everyday living. Outside is pure resort living, heated saltwater pool, brand-new hot tub, bluestone patio with wood-burning fireplace + pizza oven, outdoor shower, and lush, fully fenced grounds. Private. Polished. Perfectly positioned, make it yours. A rare Remsenburg offering, designed to unwind, entertain, and escape. This listing may include images that have been digitally altered or virtually staged. Original, unedited images are available upon request.

17. 2025-05-21
    historical
18. 2025-01-20
    listed $3,495,000 Active
19. 2024-02-15
    historical
20. 2024-01-12
    listed $3,349,000 Active
21. 2021-11-05
    soldstatus $2,775,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,047 · $1,171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $35,542 · $2,962/mo
• Expected delta: +$21,495/yr (+$1,791/mo · 153.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $374,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$189,052
• − Property taxes: −$14,047
• − Insurance: −$16,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$29,962
• − Management: −$29,962
• − Depreciation: −$98,182
• Taxable loss: −$3,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$853
• After-tax cash flow: $53,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+21.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $3,375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-20 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Listed $3,349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $2,775,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+38.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $14,047 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.