2616 Old Hardin Rd #20

Lockwood, MT 59101

$69,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,581/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $769/mo
• Annual: $9,222/yr
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.39%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.27%
• Cash to close: $19,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#238 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockwood K-12 (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #86 of 116 in MT (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lockwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #115 of 146 statewide, top 79%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Billings Sr High School (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #55 of 132 statewide, top 41%, 1,739 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 35% district-wide (35 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 1.8% in Lockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — visible wear
• Major: exterior walls — fence and siding need repair
• Major: interior walls — paint peeling