2616 Old Hardin Rd #20 · Lockwood, MT 59101

$69,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 212 Days on market

Built 1997 Fair condition $57/sqft · 18% below area Est $85k · 18% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

Key facts

• Built 1997
• Listed 211 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 1.8% in Lockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#238 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lockwood K-12 (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #86 of 116 in MT (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.39%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -18.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2710 Silverton St. St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$85,000	$70	86
2718 Silverton St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$89,900	$74	84
538 Andrick Avenue Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	12mo	$66,000	$54	83
520 Finley Cir	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-5%)	9mo	$58,000	$50	72
511 Jemstone Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	21mo	$72,000	$59	71
528 Jemstone Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	24mo	$83,900	$75	58
521 Finley Circle Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-6%)	23mo	$65,500	$57	56
506 Jemstone Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (-14%)	20mo	$60,000	$57	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $39,250
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $103,751
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59101

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $817	-5% $793	+0% $769	+5% $744	+10% $720
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $706	+0% $769	+5% $831	+10% $893
Rate	-1.0pp $804	-0.5pp $786	base $769	+0.5pp $750	+1.0pp $732

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Hemlock Dr Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	0.72mi
3455 Old Hardin Rd Unit 84 Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	924	$1,200	$1.30	22d	1	1.35mi
34 Jubilee St Unit 34JU Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,719	$1.58	45d	1	1.35mi
9 Hartland St N Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	14d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,500 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,500 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,500 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,500 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 192 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,500 Active 190 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    price $69,500 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

20. 2026-03-02
    price $75,000 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

21. 2026-02-10
    price $79,900 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

22. 2026-02-01
    status Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

23. 2026-01-06
    historical Active Under Contract 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

24. 2025-11-21
    listed $85,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Ready to move in! Cute mobile home located in Lockwood. 3 bed, 2 bath including a master suite with a soaking tub, dual sinks and a shower. Good size living room and kitchen, open concept. Carport stays. Fenced yard. Affordable lot rent at $450 per month. Back on market due to buyers financing, new roof will be completed this Summer.

25. 2023-12-21
    soldstatus Closed 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Move right in to this clean and well taken care of 3 bedroom/2 bath home. This home has a large living room with an open concept into kitchen/dining area. The kitchen has great counter space and plenty of room for gathering/cooking. Large master bedroom w/ large closets and a spacious master bath with jetted tub and shower. 2 more bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite end of the home. A front deck welcomes you and the fenced yard is perfect for enjoying the outside. This home is nestled in the rear of the mobile home park with ample storage inside, and a storage shed outside. Carport included with home.

26. 2023-12-01
    historical Active Under Contract 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Move right in to this clean and well taken care of 3 bedroom/2 bath home. This home has a large living room with an open concept into kitchen/dining area. The kitchen has great counter space and plenty of room for gathering/cooking. Large master bedroom w/ large closets and a spacious master bath with jetted tub and shower. 2 more bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite end of the home. A front deck welcomes you and the fenced yard is perfect for enjoying the outside. This home is nestled in the rear of the mobile home park with ample storage inside, and a storage shed outside. Carport included with home.

27. 2023-11-13
    listed $85,000 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Move right in to this clean and well taken care of 3 bedroom/2 bath home. This home has a large living room with an open concept into kitchen/dining area. The kitchen has great counter space and plenty of room for gathering/cooking. Large master bedroom w/ large closets and a spacious master bath with jetted tub and shower. 2 more bedrooms and a full bath on the opposite end of the home. A front deck welcomes you and the fenced yard is perfect for enjoying the outside. This home is nestled in the rear of the mobile home park with ample storage inside, and a storage shed outside. Carport included with home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $8,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,071
• After-tax cash flow: $7,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including roof and exterior wall repairs, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior walls — fence and siding need repair
• Major interior walls — paint peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances appearance and value
• Both repair roof — prevents further damage and improves value
• Both repair exterior walls — enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · fence and siding need repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · paint peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both repair roof — prevents further damage and improves value ↑
• Both repair exterior walls — enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockwood K-12
• NCES district ID: 3000656
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,104
• Composite: 23.97/100
• National rank: #7779
• State rank: #86 of 116 in MT

Livability — Lockwood

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #20350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockwood, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 42,250
• Household income: $58,598
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1534.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.74%
• Current HPI: 201.7039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $69,500 BMTMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $75,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $79,900 BMTMLS
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2026-01-06 Contingent — BMTMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $85,000 BMTMLS
• 2023-12-21 Sold (MLS) — BMTMLS
• 2023-12-01 Contingent — BMTMLS
• 2023-11-13 Listed $85,000 BMTMLS