177 San Marcos Dr

Lodi, CA 95240

$124,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$850
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-179/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-179/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (1.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.