1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
— sqft ·
Built 1962
· Townhouse
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,792/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$585
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$376
Net cashflow
$-551/mo
Annual
$-6,614/yr
Cap rate
2.99%
Cash-on-cash
-11.81%
DSCR
0.47
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-551 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (39.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (10.4% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $120k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#189 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
East Orange School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #444 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
26 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-3NPTRH5048Y7Q4
· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29