192 Hill Terrace Dr

Nederland, TX 77627

$115,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $113/mo
• Annual: $1,351/yr
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 576 students, 69% FRL); Wilson Middle (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 812 students, 41% FRL); Nederland H S (math 49% / reading 61%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 1,439 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.