192 Hill Terrace Dr · Nederland, TX 77627

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1962 10,880 sqft lot $116/sqft · 16% below area Est $137k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well cared for home would be perfect for an investment or starter home. Situated on a shaded lot close to everything. From the original hardwood floors throughout most of house, to the arches with beautiful wood trim going from living to dining room, this one has so much potential.

Key facts

• Large shaded lot
• Outdoor patio
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE SHADED LOT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OUTDOOR PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Public-maintained road

Interior

• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Natural Gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood floors; Covered porch/patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 576 students, 69% FRL); Wilson Middle (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 812 students, 41% FRL); Nederland H S (math 49% / reading 61%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 1,439 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,395
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -16.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3023 Avenue G	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+1%)	17mo	$165,000	$165	72
2403 Avenue F	0.61mi	2/1.0	936 (-6%)	22mo	$78,000	$83	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,448
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $37,253
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $145	+0% $113	+5% $80	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $61	+0% $113	+5% $164	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $142	base $113	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1212 S 36th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	16d	1	0.28mi
303 Hardy Ave Unit 3 Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	46d	1	0.42mi
224 S 35th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	0.42mi
531 S 28th St Unit B Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	16d	1	0.46mi
531 S 28th St Unit B Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$750	$1.14	25d	1	0.46mi
2604 Avenue C Unit C Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,795	$1.78	46d	1	0.61mi
2561 95th St Port Arthur, TX	1.0	1.0	579	$985	$1.70	16d	1	0.62mi
2555 95th St Port Arthur, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,490	$1.79	16d	61	0.64mi
8849 Pinewood Dr Port Arthur, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,830	$1.85	16d	1	0.69mi
1924 Avenue H Unit H Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	46d	1	0.87mi
209 N 22nd St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	46d	1	0.96mi
1619 Avenue G Unit G Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.01mi
3527 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	2.5	1088	$1,200	$1.10	46d	1	1.01mi
2901 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	16d	1	1.04mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Unit 190 Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,425	$1.44	23d	1	1.38mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Apt 3 Port Arthur, TX	1.0	1.0	812	$1,325	$1.63	46d	1	1.38mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Unit 57 Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,425	$1.44	16d	1	1.39mi
1820 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	16d	1	1.43mi
1820 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$1,150	$1.40	46d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $125,000 Active 263-char remark
19. 2023-02-14
    soldstatus
20. 2021-06-21
    soldstatus 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    This well cared for home would be perfect for an investment or starter home. Situated on a shaded lot close to everything. From the original hardwood floors throughout most of house, to the arches with beautiful wood trim going from living to dining room, this one has so much potential.

21. 2021-06-10
    listed $69,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    This well cared for home would be perfect for an investment or starter home. Situated on a shaded lot close to everything. From the original hardwood floors throughout most of house, to the arches with beautiful wood trim going from living to dining room, this one has so much potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,454 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$99
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $115,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 2023-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-21 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2021-06-10 Listed $69,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,454 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.