238 Bullard Ford Rd

Harriman, TN 37748

$210,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $668/mo
• Annual: $8,018/yr
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.99%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#330 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bowers Elementary (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #593 of 952 statewide, top 62%, 568 students, 0% FRL); Harriman Middle School (math 38% / reading 22%, grade F, #98 of 333 statewide, top 32%, 293 students, 0% FRL); Harriman High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #279 of 332 statewide, top 86%, 347 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $210k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.1% in Harriman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.