238 Bullard Ford Rd · Harriman, TN 37748

$210,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1998 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY !!! Unfortunate loss is your gain, in this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, office, family room, detached garage and more. CALL TODAY !!!

Key facts

• Space for lounging
• Gently graded ramp
• New front deck

Tags

• NEW FRONT DECK
• GENTLY GRADED RAMP
• SPACE FOR LOUNGING
• POTENTIAL SPACE FOR BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.1% in Harriman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#330 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bowers Elementary (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #593 of 952 statewide, top 62%, 568 students, 0% FRL); Harriman Middle School (math 38% / reading 22%, grade F, #98 of 333 statewide, top 32%, 293 students, 0% FRL); Harriman High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #279 of 332 statewide, top 86%, 347 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $210k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.99%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,478
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $61,975
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37748

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1281 Swan Pond Circle Rd Harriman, TN	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,500	$1.37	43d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $210,000 Active
3. 2008-10-24
   soldstatus $50,000 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY !!! Unfortunate loss is your gain, in this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, office, family room, detached garage and more. CALL TODAY !!!

4. 2008-08-04
   listed $61,500 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY !!! Unfortunate loss is your gain, in this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, office, family room, detached garage and more. CALL TODAY !!!

5. 2002-10-02
   soldstatus $58,000
6. 2002-10-02
   soldstatus $58,000
7. 1995-06-19
   soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 140.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$1,847
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $4,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $6,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County
• NCES district ID: 4703590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,611
• Composite: 25.0/100
• National rank: #7557
• State rank: #64 of 139 in TN

Livability — Harriman

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #21927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,021
• Population (ZIP): 17,021

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,652 people
• By 2030: 47,648 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 43,306 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 39,294 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 32,318 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 27,137 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.5) · D 22.1% · R 76.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -54.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.5 2020: R+50.9 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+41.3 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.78%
• Current HPI: 305.724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+775.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $210,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2008-10-24 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2008-08-04 Listed $61,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2002-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · +73.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.