15888 Conneaut Lake Rd

Kerrtown, PA 16335

$94,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $162/mo
• Annual: $1,942/yr
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $26,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#593 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Crawford Central SD (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #367 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.