15888 Conneaut Lake Rd · Kerrtown, PA 16335

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Built 1945 1.02 ac lot $73/sqft · 31% below area Est $138k · 31% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Full high basement
• Blacktop drive

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• SURVEYED ONE ACRE LOT
• 200' OF FRONTAGE
• BLACKTOP DRIVE
• FULL HIGH BASEMENT
• PUBLIC WATER AND SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#593 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Crawford Central SD (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #367 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,750
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -31.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10907 Hollis Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,341 (+4%)	18mo	$115,000	$86	48
10816 Westview Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	21mo	$115,000	$96	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,075
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $8,833
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16335

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10795 Timber Crest Dr Meadville, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	938	$1,160	$1.24	44d	8	1.11mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $94,900 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

17. 2026-04-01
    status Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

18. 2026-04-01
    price $109,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

19. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

20. 2026-02-26
    status Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

21. 2026-02-26
    price $115,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

22. 2025-12-31
    status Pending 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

23. 2025-11-26
    status Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

24. 2025-10-06
    status Pending 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

25. 2025-09-19
    listed $125,000 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house needs work but the setting, private lot and Vernon township location are it's drawing card. Surveyed one acre lot with 200' of frontage and house sits above the road. Nice blacktop drive. Full high basement. Public water and sewer. Convenient to Walmart and W. End school. House was used as a rental for 40+ years. Property has been subdivided from a larger parcel and once sold, taxes will likely be reassessed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$104
• After-tax cash flow: $1,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4207080
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,837
• Composite: 33.21/100
• National rank: #5530
• State rank: #367 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kerrtown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #5654

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crawford County · 27,175 people
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,175
• Household income: $57,591
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 953.0

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.80%
• Current HPI: 272.4095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-24.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $94,900 GEBOR
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $109,000 GEBOR
• 2026-03-26 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $115,000 GEBOR
• 2025-12-31 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-11-26 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2025-10-06 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $125,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,035 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.