575 S Lyon Ave #161

Hemet, CA 92543

$39,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$625
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $461/mo
• Annual: $5,536/yr
• Cap rate: 20.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.70%
• DSCR: 3.26
• 1% rule: 4.40%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 4.8% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.