3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,260 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,529/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$724
Tax + insurance
−$191
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$321
Net cashflow
$293/mo
Annual
$3,517/yr
Cap rate
8.84%
Cash-on-cash
9.10%
DSCR
1.40
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$38,640
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Oakcrest Elementary School (math 32% / reading 15%, grade F, #2,061 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 491 students, 75% FRL); Pensacola High School (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,229 students, 55% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $22k; list at $138k implies a 527% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29