4356 S Kirkman Rd #514

Orlando, FL 32811

$165,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · Built 1997 · Condo · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$521
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-447/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-447/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (4.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windy Ridge K-8 (math 68% / reading 68%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 1,173 students, 41% FRL); Chain of Lakes Middle (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 1,209 students, 46% FRL); Olympia High (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,969 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 241 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,123/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?