3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,484 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,187/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,354
Tax + insurance
−$430
HOA
−$54
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$459
Net cashflow
$-111/mo
Annual
$-1,326/yr
Cap rate
5.78%
Cash-on-cash
-1.83%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$72,300
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (2.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (11.6% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $219k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Stephen F Austin (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 1,206 students, 76% FRL).
Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3R08DYC1CC1NKH
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29